THOUSANDS of exam students in Wales will have their predicted grades marked down this summer by the nation's qualifications board.

A-level, AS-level, and GCSE students did not sit exams this year because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, which brought the education system to a halt in March.

Instead, teachers were asked to submit predicted grades for their exam students, but now – days before A-level results day (August 13) – Qualifications Wales (QW) has announced these predicted grades were generally too generous and inconsistent between exam centres.

Handing this year's exam students these "unchecked" predicted grades would give exam results that were "not credible" in comparison with previous years' results, QW said, adding that the beefed-up results would cast doubt over the veracity of this year's results and end up disadvantaging this year's A-level and GCSE students.

“Qualifications awarded in Wales this year are of the same value as those awarded in any other normal year,” QW's chief executive, Philip Blaker, said.

“The approach to awarding this year’s grades has been carefully thought through to be as fair as possible in the circumstances and protect the value of results – without such an approach big variations in outcomes would reduce confidence in results and therefore disadvantage this year’s learners.”

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Mr Blaker said QW had to standardise predicted grades to ensure fairness between centres but also fairness to exam students from previous, and future, academic years.

“On the whole [predicted grades] were generous and there was also evidence of inconsistency between exam centres,” Mr Blaker said. “This is in no way a criticism of teachers as there was no opportunity amid the pandemic to train them. Wales is no different to many other nations where this year has required a shift from externally assessed exams to calculating grades.

“Our analysis shows a clear difference between [predicted grades] and exam results in previous years highlighting the need for standardisation to secure fairness for learners.”

Had teachers' predicted grades been used unchecked, 40.4 per cent of A-level students would have received an A* or A grade, compared to 27 per cent in 2019.

Similarly, teachers' predicted grades would have given 24.5 per cent of GCSE students an A* or A grades, compared to 17.9 per cent last year.

And 73.4 per cent would have had an A* to C grade, compared to 62.4 per cent in 2019.

“Changes of this magnitude are unprecedented and unchecked would not be credible. They would also be at odds with our aim that results this year at a national level are broadly similar to previous years – something that most people agreed with when we consulted on our aims,” Mr Blaker said.

“The approaches, developed by [examination board] WJEC and approved by QW, protect the standards of GCSEs and A-levels and the credibility of these qualifications, defending them from accusations of grade inflation.

"There are some differences in the approaches used due to the design of GCSEs and AS/A-levels in Wales, but the system is similar to that being used in other jurisdictions across the UK.”